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Author Topic: Week Ahead 29th June Technical Analysis from FXMars  (Read 1727 times)
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« on: Monday, June 30, 2014 - 07:22 »

Posted by fxmars.com

The break through the orange bearish corridor from May 12 is certain. After the price has been following the bullish trend line from June 12, the pair was brought through the upper level of the corridor. The price is about to reach the already broken 1.36711 neck line of the big double top formation as a resistance. Having in mind that the stochastic oscillator has almost reached the 100-80 area and it is about to give a signal for an overbought market, we have a reason to believe that the price might bounce from the 1.36711 resistance, which on the other hand might resume the already interrupted bearish activity.

After interacting with the 102.770 resistance (green), on its way down, the price created a second shoulder and broke through the neck line (orange) of the small head and shoulders (green) formation with shoulders from May 27 and June 18. The price has almost reached the support at 101.197 and it has completed only about 50% of the potential movement of the already confirmed head and shoulders formation. For this reason, we believe that the price might break through the 101.197 support and might decrease to the next support at 100,756, which connects the bottoms from February 4 and May 21. Of course, there might be a bullish correction after the price interacts with the 101.197 support.

After increasing to its 5-years high at 1.70475, the Cable scored a tiny decrease and another increase to the 5-years high appeared. Currently, the price is testing the 1.70475 resistance, which having in mind its age, it might not even get broken. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator is decreasing, which creates a bearish divergence between the bottoms of the Cable and the stochastic oscillator. For this reason, we believe that it is more likely for the price to bounce from the level, which indicates the 5-years high, and to start a decrease, which might reach the 1.68377 support.

Like in the EUR/USD currency pair, the Swissy broke its corridor too. As we all know, the situation here is reflex to the EUR/USD, which means that the here the corridor from May 12 is bullish and the break is bearish through the lower level of the corridor. The price is still following the bearish trend line (green) from June 12, which is about to bring the price to the 0.88618 support. The stochastic oscillator is almost on into the 20-0 area, which means that we might get a signal for an oversold market soon. For this reason, like by the EUR/USD pair, we might see a change in the bearish direction soon – for example, after the price interacts with the 0.88618 resistance.

As we see, the price of the Aussie is testing again the resistance at 0.94347. At the same time, the last tops of the price are in a bearish divergence with the last tops of the stochastic oscillator, which speaks of an eventual decrease of the test phase on the 0.94347 resistance. Furthermore, the bullish increase of the price after the interaction with the 0.92027 support resembles a rising wedge formation, which as we all know, has bearish potential. Moreover, the stochastic oscillator has created a head and shoulders formation, which is about to get confirmed and to support the whole bearish scenario we just described. For this reason, we believe that the price would most likely change its direction and would eventually drop to the already broken bearish line (purple), which connects the tops from April 10 and May 14.

After breaking in bullish direction through the blue bearish corridor from March 21, the price increased with about 2.8% and reached the level of 1321.88, where it obviously found strong resistance. During the whole last trading week, the price has been consolidating around the 1321.88 resistance, but a certain break did not appear, which implies that the price might bounce in bearish direction. Suddenly, after getting into the 100-80 area, the stochastic oscillator’s lines interacted and the indicator is currently getting out of the 100-80 area, which speaks of an overbought market. For this reason, a decrease of the price to the already broken upper level of the blue bearish corridor looks authentic. We would also like to remind, that the interaction point between the already broken upper level of the blue bearish corridor and the 1268.56 support is pretty close in regards of time period. Might this be the next target of the price?

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